2020 year 1 month 17 Japan , The National Bureau of statistics released 2019 The national economic report , The report points out that China's population breakthrough 14 Billion .
Brother pig's circle of friends is 14 Million people swipe the screen , But many people don't see the complicated population problem in our country ： Aging 、 The imbalance between men and women 、 The fertility rate is falling 、 The demographic dividend is falling, etc .
Today, let's analyze the population data of our country ！
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2020 year 1 month 17 Japan , The National Bureau of statistics released 2019 The national economic report , The report points out that ： The total population of mainland China at the end of the year （ Include 31 A province 、 Autonomous region 、 Municipalities directly under the central government and active servicemen of the Chinese people's Liberation Army , Excluding Hong Kong 、 Number of overseas Chinese in Macao SAR and Taiwan Province ）140005 ten thousand people .
in other words 2019 At the end of the year, the population of our country broke through 14 Billion ！
Report links ：http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202001/t20200117_1723383.html
according to 2010 year 5 month 12 The State Council of Japan 111 Adopted at the executive meeting 《 National Census regulations 》 Chapter one Article 8 provides that ： Census every 10 Once a year , It's the end of the day 0 The year of is the census year , The standard time point is 11 month 1 Zero hour of the day .
in other words 2020 year 11 There will be a seventh census in June , After the founding of new China, the first six censuses were ：1953、1964、1982、1990、2000、2010 year .
ps： Some students may have questions ： Ten years census , How can the population in other years come from ？ In non census years , The total population of that year = The total population of last year + The population born in that year - The people who died that year And calculated ！
《 Amendment to the population and family planning law of the people's Republic of China ( The draft )》 Make it clear ,“ universal two-child policy ” policy 2016 New year's day can be implemented . We will fully implement the policy of one couple having two children , It is a historical adjustment of China's fertility policy , Implemented 36 The one-child policy ended in .
The founding of new China 70, Experienced many ups and downs , policy 、 economic 、 There are also many changes in culture , And the population changes .
Population change has a huge and far-reaching impact on social and economic development , So today we analyze the population change in China from various perspectives ：
Data sources about our population , It can be downloaded from “ National data ” Get . This is a website provided by the National Bureau of statistics , There's a lot of open data in it ！
On the national data website , From the founding of new China to 2018 Population related data for .
In the demographic data , There are three items of data we need ： The total population 、 growth rate 、 population structure .
We press F12 Check out the requested link , Then copy the link to use
requests Request data .
Use only one simple get request , Just get the data , And the direct return is json data ！
Our purpose this time is to capture all population data from New China to the present , And the page can get at most close to 20 Years of data , So we need to analyze the paging parameters in the web page request .
Analysis of the request parameters found that there are two main parameters ：
sj, respectively indicators and Time .
Parameters ：sj=LAST10, Near 10 year , So brother pig guessed ：sj=LAST70 Is it possible to get 70 What about the data of ？
Then we will
zb Parameter change , Get all the data ！
After getting the data , Let's clean the data first , Extract the data we need , Then organize and save it to Excel in , We still use Master pan (pandas).
Let's take a look at the preserved excel File data .
At present, the only incomplete data is that there is no 2019 Years of data , because 2019 The year just ended, so the data hasn't been registered on the website , We can only work it out by ourselves and make up for it .
Brother pig according to 2020 year 1 month 17 Japan , The National Bureau of statistics released 2019 The data on population in the national economic report in came to 2019 Data from .
Take a look at the complete 70 Annual population data .
After the data is saved, we can start the data analysis step , Generally, we need to have an idea before we analyze the data ： What to analyze ？ From what angles ？ What visual graphics to choose ？ What is the conclusion ？（ Of course, the actual work of the analysis report needs to be more rigorous , But the general idea is similar .）
First we extract Excel Medium “ Total Population ” This column of data is analyzed .
Go straight to the code , Brother pig first uses master pan to read Excel, Then get the column data of the total population （ Please check the source code for the complete code ）.
The code above is a little different from the curve drawn before ： Added the function of custom curve background color and area color , Next time someone wants to customize pyecharts The curve background can refer to the code here .
In the picture below, brother pig marked four points ：
By observing the total population curve, we know that ：
But after releasing the second child, it did not usher in the peak period of fertility , Issued by relevant UN agencies 《 World population Outlook 》2017 The revised version gives a similar expectation . It tends to assume that China's population has begun to fall V Type reversal , After the population peaked ,2050 The year will last 13 Billions more , And then it will accelerate the slide （ low 、 in 、 Three high fertility rates , From the United Nations Population Fund ）.
We often hear people say ：“ The imbalance between men and women in China , There will be 3000 Ten thousand Chinese men can't marry ”.
In fact, this is the result of the imbalance between men and women in our country .
Next brother pig from the following 4 To analyze the relationship between male and female ratio in China ：
According to the above 4 We can draw some conclusions ：
How many male compatriots in our country will fight single ？ Due to limited space , We will do a special analysis of this problem in the next issue ！
There are many students who don't understand “ Population urbanization ”, Here is the introduction of Baidu Encyclopedia ：
Population urbanization refers to the transformation of rural population into urban population 、 The process of transforming agricultural population into non-agricultural population , It is the product of the development of social productivity to a certain stage .
Urbanization is a comprehensive indicator , It can be used to measure the local economic development 、 Infrastructure and people's living standards .
meanwhile , The process of urbanization is also an important supporting force of the real estate market at the demand level , The figure below shows the relationship between population urbanization and social development .
According to Northam, an American geographer, the study of urbanization around the world , The world's urbanization is divided into three stages ：
Let's take a look at the data analysis of China's population urbanization ：
According to the analysis above ：
The United Nations forecasts the process of population urbanization in China ： The initial stage of urbanization in China is 1949 year ～1995 year , In the middle is 1996 year ～2032 year , Later is 2033 Years later .
Data visualization code pig brother will not put out , Want to see the students directly take a look at the source , Let's look directly at the pictures .
From the picture above ：
At present, most women of childbearing age are 85-90 after , By family planning (1980 year ) influence , The number of women of childbearing age is less than before , The number of children is naturally less than before , This situation will continue .
The birth rate is down , Increased mortality , Population growth will slow down , The Academy of Social Sciences predicts that 2029 Our population peaked around (14.42 Billion ) Then slowly reduce ！
Digression ： After crawling through the data , Find out National data website The data provided is also wrong ：1961 Annual population ratio 1960 The annual population is down , And the growth rate is an integer ！
The age structure of the population is a measure of Aging And Demographic dividend Indicators of .
Aging ： A relative increase in the number of elderly people , The rising proportion of the total population , The common international view is , When a country or region 60 The number of people over the age of 10%, or 65 The number of people over the age of 7%, It means that the population of this country or region is in an aging society . —— Baidu Encyclopedia
Aging is a stage that every country and every society will go through , At present, the problem of aging in developed countries is more serious than that in developing countries , According to a copy provided by Kuaiyi data In terms of the ranking of aging in the world , China is only in line for 65 name , The first place is Japan , The first few are European countries .
Demographic dividend ： Economic terminology , It means that the working age population of a country accounts for a large proportion of the total population , The dependency rate is relatively low , It creates favorable population conditions for economic development , The economy as a whole is high in savings 、 High investment and high growth .
The demographic dividend is simply The number of labor force Greater than Not The labor force , A high proportion of the working population , Guarantee the labor demand in economic growth , Abundant labor resources and cost advantages have made China the engine of world factory and world economic growth .
From the above three figures, we can get ：
2019 In, the old population of our country was 1.76 Billion , China's aging is about to enter the stage of rapid aging , At present, pension in many provinces of our country is in urgent need , China's pension system reform is imminent .
Because the length is too long , Many analysis codes are not released , If you want to learn, you can check the source code （https://github.com/pig6/china_population）.
Let's summarize the results of our analysis today ：
In conclusion, there are two serious problems in China's population structure ：
Faced with two severe tests , I hope that some professionals can give advice to our country , I hope that our country will achieve great rejuvenation as soon as possible ！
Data sources ：
Reference resources ：
Get the source code of this tutorial , Scan the QR code below for attention vx And no. 「 Naked pigs 」 reply ： Demographic analysis You can view it ！